Bulls might be on the rampage on Dalal Street but lofty valuations of the Indian equities present a reason for concern and the markets could perhaps witness up to 10 per cent correction, according to analysts. Benchmark indices have been on a record-breaking rally lately and August witnessed the stock market reaching many new highs. The BSE benchmark soared over 9 per cent last month.
A gold bull market this year or the next is highly unlikely.
The broader NSE Nifty reclaimed the 11,600 level, zooming 326 points or 2.9 per cent to settle at 11,600.20. Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Bajaj Finance, L&T, Asian Paints, ITC, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC twins, Maruti and SBI, rallying up to 8.70 per cent.
The satta market is accepting bets on how many times Modiji will mention Nehru at his election rallies, says A Ganesh Nadar with a wink.
Infosys was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, jumping over 4 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, ITC, Maruti, SBI and Axis Bank. On the other hand, HCL Tech, M&M, Dr Reddy's, Asian Paints, Bajaj Auto and Bharti Airtel were among the laggards.
The Nifty's put-call ratios are very bearish.
The market breadth was positive on BSE with 1,525 gainers and 1,164 losers.
'Long-term retail investors should not worry about these sharp dips and jumps if they have chosen their stocks wisely.' 'Short-term volatility is a given and a rise and fall of two-three per cent should not worry them.'
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
'His track record in the market has been spotless and untainted.' 'That is why he had such great fan following among investors.'
Overall market benchmark Sensex is headed for its worst performance in four years with a decline of 1,650 points
Market experts poohpooh fears of capital flight from India.
TCS was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 3 per cent, followed by HUL, UltraTech Cement, Nestle India, Kotak Bank, Dr Reddy's and Titan. NSE Nifty surged 157.90 points to 17,234.15.
Infrastructure funds, which bet on stocks closely linked with infrastructure development in the country, have emerged as one of the best-performing categories over the past year. They have generated an average return of 90.63 per cent - the third-best, after technology funds and small-cap funds. Of the 21 schemes in the category, seven have given a return of more than 100 per cent in a year.
Markets could slide again owing to conditions in Europe and the US.
Investing in the US market provides Indian investors a hedge against the rupee's long-term tendency to depreciate against the dollar.
Ajay Bagga, CEO, Lotus India Mutual Fund, feels the government should have taken timely action to control inflation. He feels that the recent fall is not a bull-market correction but a serious downturn that could last for about six to eight months. He said the government cannot afford to keep interest rates this high. It is likely to cut rates once the inflation moderates. Meanwhile the rupee will be allowed to appreciate to compensate for the rise in global commodity prices.
This is a crucial advantage traders enjoy over investors -- the ability to make money whether the market is moving up or down. This fact should not, however, lead you to believe that trading is easy; it requires both a skill-set and rigorous discipline.
High dividend yield stocks usually perform well in a rising interest rate environment when investors value cash flows more.
There is room for caution as we are in a very mature bull market in the US and a sudden slide there will have ramifications for Nifty, says Sonali Ranade
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
Why should promoters have an option to buy shares when other shareholders don't? Perhaps warrants can be done away with altogether since most promoters don't seem convinced about the value of their companies, says Shobhana Subramanian.
The Virtus is indeed designed to look, act and behave like a well-built European sedan that swims in the segment between the compact sedan VW Vento and the larger Passat, says Pavan Lall.
After outperforming the broader market and their public sector peers for the better part of the post-Lehman period, private sector banks - such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank - are now underperforming. Last week, the Nifty Private Bank index was up just 6 per cent year-to-date in the calendar year 2021, against nearly 13 per cent rally in the Bank Nifty and a 15 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty50. Public sector (PSU) banks, such as State bank of India, Bank of Baroda, and Punjab National Bank, are now rally leaders and outperforming the broader market. The Nifty PSU Bank index was up 42 per cent since the beginning of this calendar year. But on a longer term, the Nifty Private Bank index is up 101 per cent since March 2016, against a 118 per cent rally in the Bank Nifty and just 2 per cent rise in the Nifty PSU Bank index in the period.
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Investors indulged in profit booking at attractive and higher valuations
Titan was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by HDFC, Nestle India, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement and Bharti Airtel. On the other hand, Bajaj Auto, Tata Steel and NTPC were the laggards.
Investors have a reason to cheer as the Sensex continues to stay above the psychologically significant 20,000 mark.
While the market may remain volatile this year, analysts expect equities to deliver positive returns by outperforming inflation and government bonds, supported by the fiscal stimulus in the US.
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in India are expected to stay buoyant, seen over the last three-four years, despite a slowdown in the first seven months of the calendar year. "M&A is a lumpy business activity, and we may suddenly see large deals taking place during the next two quarters of the calendar year. "This would help maintain the streak of strong M&A activity.
Valuations are not exactly cheap and there are global factors, which are probably not conducive to a very strong bull market rally
The markets have been unable to sustain at higher levels as a rise in bond yields globally, especially in the US have dented sentiment. Surging commodity prices, especially crude oil that have now hit $70 a barrel (Brent) coupled with inflation woes and fear of sporadic lockdown across major economic hubs back home as Covid cases rise have chased the bulls away. In the short-term, analysts expect the markets to remain volatile as they react to news flow - both from overseas and developments back home. Investors, they say, need to keep a tab on how the US treasury yields move, which in turn will have a ripple effect on how big money moves across developed (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs), including India.
While the long-term sustainable job recovery in the US markets could be a possibility in the not so distant future, there are no such luxuries for its Indian counterpart.
Accommodative monetary policy has driven a bull market in stocks in recent years, but the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates early next year and the U.S. Federal Reserve not long after, tempering future gains.
Soon after acquiring strategic management control of Vijay Mallya's crown jewel, United Spirits, Diageo has swung into action, making up for years of lost time in trying to figure out the Indian market.
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